(ANSA) - ROME, NOV 8 - Former US president Donald Trump's election victory in the United States is sending shivers through Europe, which fears a déjà vu of transatlantic tensions over defence spending and tariffs on EU products sold to the US.
What's at stake for Europe and the EU when Trump returns to the White House? The looming return to power of the Republican former President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, has sent shockwaves through Europe and the European Union after he triumphed in elections against Democrat Kamala Harris on Wednesday.
Most urgent among the threats posed by Trump's return are the fear he could upend European security and pull the plug on support for Ukraine, while simultaneously unleashing a trade war with steep tariffs on European goods. At the same time, Europe is in a fragile situation as on the same day the government coalition of its largest economy, Germany, collapsed over rifts on spending and economic reforms.
A number of European leaders publicly welcomed the 78-year-old president-elect's victory with a willingness to collaborate to improve the transatlantic relationship and work together for peace, including a cautious German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, as well as a joyous Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and also Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calling for a "just peace" in Ukraine.
In Serbia, president Aleksandar Vučić said that he expects good relations with the US and that this victory "will have a healing effect on global conditions". He stressed that he expects pressure from the US when it comes to Serbia's close cooperation with China which, according to him, Trump perceives as the US' strategic opponent on the global stage.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), society is deeply divided and different communities have mixed reactions to Trump's election victory. It is being welcomed in Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity. BiH Presidency members Željko Komšić and Denis Bećirović highlighted the importance of the US as a strategic partner and saw an opportunity to bolster bilateral relations. However, analysts believe US policy towards BiH - namely, supporting regional stability and integration into European and Western institutions - will stay unchanged.
The second vice-president of the Spanish government, Yolanda Díaz, said "Trump's victory is bad news for all citizens who understand politics as a tool that improves our lives, not one that intoxicates them with hatred and disinformation".
European leaders convene on shaky grounds European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recalled the "true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens" and called on Trump to "work together on a strong transatlantic agenda that keeps delivering for them".
The ultra-nationalist Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán greeted Trump's victory with a call for the EU to develop a new strategy on Ukraine. Orbán is a close ally of Trump. Currently, Hungary holds the six-months rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.
European leaders on Thursday convened in Budapest for the fifth meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) as well as an informal summit of EU leaders on Friday. Originally talks were scheduled to address the economy, migration, recent elections in EU candidate country Georgia, the spiralling conflict in the Middle East, and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. EU leaders were also expected to agree on a new strategy to revamp the bloc's economic competitiveness.
However, the return of Trump overshadowed the agenda, especially as leaders in the EU and of other countries bordering Russia struggle to absorb the uncomfortable outcome of the US elections and what it means for transatlantic relations.
From support for Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the de-risking strategy with China, to the commercial and technological partnerships that had resumed with the Democrats in power: everything could now change.
US defence commitments cast into doubt The incoming US president has repeatedly questioned the US' security commitments to NATO - a military alliance of 32 member states - in anger over low defence spending by European allies.
Trump has also criticised US President Joe Biden for providing military aid to Ukraine and claimed that he could end the Russian war of aggression in one day after taking office, provoking worries Ukraine may be pressured to surrender.
Trump denounced the fact that some of the European allies were failing to meet the alliance's defence spending targets - set at two percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - and raised doubts as to whether the US would fully stand by its commitment under his leadership. However, Trump did not repeat earlier threats of withdrawal from the alliance.
An outstretched hand to collaborate with Trump to promote peace came from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. "Through NATO, the US has 31 friends and Allies who help to advance US interests, multiply American power and keep Americans safe," the former Dutch prime minister said. "Together, NATO Allies represent half of the world's economic might and half of the world's military might," he added.
Rutte also said Trump "demonstrated strong US leadership throughout his first term in office - a term that turned the tide on European defence spending, improved transatlantic burden sharing, and strengthened Alliance capabilities".
Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius - who needs to be officially confirmed in his new role as European Commissioner for Defence - pointed out that European countries had ramped up their budgets since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. He said the bloc needs to spend more on rearming because of threats from Russia - not because it is a demand by US president-elect Donald Trump.
Bulgarian MEP Eva Maydell (EPP) predicted "tough negotiations" with the US on defence spending in NATO but pointed out that a lot of countries have realised that two percent is the bare minimum that should be spent on defence. "The question now is whether we can devote more than that percentage. We do not know what Donald Trump's attitude to NATO will be, whether he will want to reform it, whether he will want to stay in it," she added.
Renewed threat of EU-US trade spat During the election campaign, Trump announced his intention to introduce new tariffs of ten to 20 percent on EU imports into the US and even 60 percent on products from China. His aim is to strengthen the US as a manufacturing base and reduce the current trade deficit.
Back in 2018, during his first term, the volatile US leader had slapped tariffs on European steel and aluminium exports forcing the EU to respond with its own higher duties. "To me 'tariff' is a very beautiful word," he repeated on the stump this year.
The fact that European companies sell significantly more goods in the US than American companies in the EU is a thorn in Trump's side. The US was the most important export market for EU companies in 2023.
In Brussels, Trump's comments on tariffs are being taken very seriously. In the months before the election, the European Commission tasked a group of officials with preparing for a victory by either Trump or Harris, in a bid to get ahead of any painful consequences. If Trump were to introduce new tariffs, the EU would in all likelihood respond with retaliatory tariffs on US imports.
The Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, said Trump's win "increases risks for the global economy" and would bring "likely more protectionism" and an increased US budget deficit.
In Slovenia, business representatives have also warned about possible excessive protectionism following Trump's win. The Slovenian Chamber of Commerce and Industry stressed that there should be no measures that would result in production being moved to the US and that would be in conflict with the principles of free trade.
It could be particularly tough for the German automotive industry and its suppliers. Together with China, the US is the most important sales market outside the EU for manufacturers such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz. Special tariffs would likely have a significant negative impact for the automotive industry.
"Trump is well aware that Germany sells a lot of cars to the United States and could curb any European reaction to Trump tariffs," said Sylvie Matelly, head of the Institut Jacques Delors think tank.
This article is published twice a week. The content is based on news by agencies participating in the enr, in this case AFP, ANSA, BTA, dpa, EFE, Europa Press, FENA, STA, and Tanjug.
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