Estimates that as much as 10% of
Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) is derived from criminal
activities is "only a hypothesis," the Bank of Italy said
Monday.
Statisticians from the central banking were reacting to
estimates that extrapolated the impact of crime on the national
economy.
Those estimates were made after national statistics agency
Istat announced earlier this month that it would begin to
estimate the value of some criminal activity, including drugs,
prostitution, and smuggling, in its calculations of economic
activity.
Italy is one of several European nations that are to begin
to include activities within the underground economy in its
macroeconomic indicators under new accounting methods sanctioned
by the European Union in line with a "best practices" directive
laid out by the United Nations in 2008.
Other nations beginning to take account of the value of
crime include the United Kingdom and Ireland.
A report in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month
suggested that Italian GDP could be increased by 1-2% when the
country starts including crime when measuring its economic
activity.
Skeptics of the changes question the accuracy of the
resulting figures given that transactions made in the shadow
economy are by definition hard to quantify.
However the UN in its 2008 directive warned that national
accounts "as a whole are liable to be seriously distorted" if
all transactions are not tabulated.
There is a plus side for Italy to include the calculations
- a higher GDP will help it to meet its obligations to keep its
deficit as a proportion of GDP within the prescribed EU limit of
3%.
In April, statistical agency Istat said Italy's
deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2013 was 2.8% by some measures.
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