Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti
blamed the "weight" of the Superbonus green building renovation
benefit scheme for the rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio the
government sees coming over the next three years in the DEF
economic blueprint cabinet approved on Tuesday
"The rising public debt forecast by the DEF is heavily
conditioned by the impact of the Superbonus in the coming years,
but after 2026 it will start to fall," he said after the DEF set
debt at 137.8% of GDP this year, rising to 138.9% in 2025 and
139.8% in 2026.
National statistics agency Istat put Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio
at 137.3% in 2023.
The Superbonus programme, introduced by a previous government
headed by 5-Star Movement (M5S) leader Giuseppe Conte in 2020,
covered 110% of the cost of certain energy-efficiency building
renovations.
The scheme has been significantly curtailed by the current
government but the cost keeps growing.
As of 31 March, the total burden borne by the state for the
Superbonus exceeds 122 billion euro, according to the latest
monthly data.
The DEF sees Italy's GDP growing by 1% this year, down from 1.2%
in the NADEF update document it adopted in the second half of
2023.
Italy's budget deficit will come in at 4.3% of GDP this year and
will fall to 3.7% in 2025, to 3% in 2026 and to 2.2% in 2027,
according to the DEF.
Italy had a deficit of 7.2% of GDP last year, according to
initial estimates by statistics agency Istat.
Giorgetti has said that an EU infringement procedure over
Italy's 2023 deficit is inevitable because of this, but has
nevertheless effectively ruled out the possibility of the
government passing a corrective budget.
On Tuesday Giorgetti added that the government wanted to prolong
a cut in the labour tax wedge to next year.
"We absolutely intend to replicate the decontribution that
expires in 2024 in 2025," he said.
"This is the real goal we set ourselves when we go to define the
structural fiscal programme."
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