The European Commission said in its
autumn economic forecasts on Friday that it sees Italy's GDP
rising 0.7% this year, down from the figure of 0.9% it predicted
in May.
The figure is also lower than the Italian government's growth
forecast of 1% for 2024.
The Commission trimmed its forecast growth for Italy for 2025
too, from 1.1% to 1%.
It sees Italy's GDP increasing by 1.2% in 2026.
The Commission said it estimates Italy's public debt-to-GDP
ratio will be 136.6% in 2024 and then rise to 138.2% in 2025 and
139.3% in 2026.
This is better than its spring forecasts of ratios of 138.6% in
2024 and 141.7% in 2025.
The draft budget plan the Italian government sent to Brussels
sees the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of 2024 at 135.8%, then at
136.9 % in 2025 and 137.8 % in 2026.
The Commission said it estimates that Italy's deficit will
decrease to 3.8% of GDP in 2024 from 7.2 % last year, and will
fall to 3.4 % in 2025 and 2.9 % in 2026.
The figures are downward revisions on the spring estimates of
4.4% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025.
The Italian budget document sees the deficit-to-GDP ratio
falling to 3.3% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026.
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