The European Commission said Monday
that it has revised down its GDP growth forecast for Italy for
2022 to 2.4%, down from the 4.1% it predicted in February.
It said it expects the Italian economy to grow by 1.9% next
year, down from its previous 2023 forecast of 2.3%.
The Commission said "the spillover effects from Russia's
military aggression against Ukraine exacerbate existing
supply-chain disruptions and price pressures," it its spring
economic forecasts.
It said this year's growth in Italy is mostly attributable to a
carryover effect from brisk recovery of 2021 from the COVID-19
induced slump.
It said the Italian economy's return to pre-crisis output levels
has been postponed to the second half of 2022 as a result.
"The outlook remains subject to pronounced downside risks," the
Commission said.
"Namely, as one of the largest importers of Russian natural gas
among EU
countries, Italy would be severely affected by abrupt supply
disruptions".
It said Italy's inflation rate is set to climb to close to 6%
this year and
average 2.3% in 2023.
It said government deficit and debt are projected to decline to
4.3% and
146.8% by 2023, as pandemic-related policy support is
phased-out.
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