The Bank of Italy said Friday that
Italy's annual inflation rate would rise to around 8% this year
if the knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine led to a complete
halt in gas supplies to Italy from Russia, before dropping to
2.3% in 2023.
It said inflation would be 5.6% in 2022 and 2.2% next year in
the intermediate scenario and 4% and 1.8% respectively if there
is a fast resolution to the conflict.
"In the current context of extremely high uncertainty, even more
unfavourable scenarios cannot be excluded," the central bank
said in a report.
It said Germany and Italy were the countries with the "greatest
reliance on raw materials from Russia" and they "could be among
the hardest hit, directly and indirectly through global value
chains, by a block on exports to Russia".
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