Achieving price stability will be 'crucial' for the recovery of the Turkish economy, in the context of the very high inflation that has characterised the past few years, reaching over 75 per cent in May, while since June price increases have started to fall, although they still stand at 50 per cent year-on-year. This was argued by prestigious Turkish economists, showing cautious optimism for a recovery that in their opinion will still take time, during a meeting organised in Istanbul by C.i.m EurAsiaMed - the Confederation of Italian Entrepreneurs in the World - attended by ANSA.
Inflation will still fall but will not go below 43 per cent by the end of the year while in 2025 it could reach 25 per cent, according to forecasts by Seda Guler Mert, chief economist at Garanti BBVA bank, Alper Gurler, head of the economic research centre at Is Bankasi bank, and Cagri Sarikaya, chief economist at Ak Bank. The process to achieve price stability will be accompanied by a slowdown in production in addition to the devaluation of the lira, which has already been underway for years. According to economists, one dollar will be worth between 36 and 37 Turkish liras by the end of 2024, whereas today the exchange rate stands at $1/34TL, and the loss in value will continue next year. The process of achieving price stability started with the government's return to an orthodox economic policy, with the Central Bank regularly raising rates, starting in June 2023, from 8.5 per cent to the current 50 per cent, reached in March, in just over a year. According to economists, the bank may start lowering rates in January while, for the time being, there has been no significant return from foreign investment.
The conference was introduced by Aldo Kaslowski, president of C.i.i.m. EurAsiaMed, and was attended by numerous Western economists and diplomats, while the Italian ambassador to Ankara, Giorgio Marrapodi, emphasised 'the friendship between Italy and Turkey' in his opening speech.
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